david, i want to drill down on even over this past weekend we heard the fiscal cliff is a cliff. no parachute. bad things happen if we go over it. i have never been persuaded of that. the payroll tax is likely to go up either way. the taxes in the healthcare bill will kickback in no matter what. sequestration could be remedied. is it in your view a slope, a cliff, what is the metaphor, and is there hysteria attached to this that is excessive? >> cliff is a problematic metaphor because it is not like the debt ceiling. it's not even like the government shutdown. you don't necessarily have an enormous market reaction. this is not like the country defaulting on its debt. but it's serious for two reasons. we don't know what the reaction could be. there it is a chance that it could spook the markets. the second thing, the combine pieces of this passage is a combined 4% of the gdp. if they went into affect and remained in affect not just for a couple of weeks but for the full year it's hard to see how the economy avoids a recession next year. it's not guaranteed but it's more than enoug